Trading charts for Tuesday, April 4th
I run the largest stocktwits room where I share content all day for both my portfolios, my investment models, market/macro commentary and much more…
Good morning and Happy Tuesday,
Value did better than growth yesterday… is this the beginning of a rotation from tech (outperformed in Q1) into the laggards from Q1 ie energy, staples, healthcare, financials, etc — the markets need mega cap tech to participate but some broadening out to other sectors would also be a positive thing. We don’t need to see a rotation but rather tech holding up while money comes off the sidelines into those other sectors. Nasdaq had a nice bounce off the lows yesterday but still finished in the red.
As you can see, energy was the big outperformer yesterday with healthcare doing the next best…
Out of the indexes the Nasdaq has been the strongest most recently with the Russell being the weakest.
Two days ago (Friday) SPY filled the gap from mid-February which could have been resistance but it pushed right through.
Yesterday IWM got rejected at the VWAP from August highs, I’d get more bullish and consider buying some TNA if we can push through that VWAP in the next few days.
Pre-markets look decent, remember the jobs report on Friday…
Yields not doing much today, 2Y got under 4% yesterday with the 10Y back under 3.5% — these are the levels I’m watching. Curious to see if yields move higher along with oil prices and then how they react to the jobs report on Friday.
The probability of another 25 bps at the FOMC meeting in May finally crossed above 60% which has not been the case up until today
I tried to provide alot of variety today in the setups, some of these stocks have been working for the past couple weeks and still look good, others are trying to come out of recent base or reclaim the 200d on the way off recent lows. Some of them are more speculative than others (OTLY) and others are companies that I’m not a huge fan of in terms of fundamentals but the technicals look good (RBLX) and then I also included a 3x leveraged ETF (SOXL) because semis continue to look strong and this is one way to play it with a little more beta.
Lots of traders all chasing the same names right now (META, DUOL, ALGM, ON, NVDA, AI, FOUR, etc) and many of them might keep working because the charts look great and most of them have strong fundamentals but I wanted to provide some new names today. Some of the names that are up the most YTD are not only looking overextended on the charts but also on valuation and that can’t continue indefinitely. At some point money will look to rotate out of the stretched names and into the next group of potential winners that might be ready for a bigger move coming out of a recent base.
Below the paywall is my current trading portfolio (11 stocks) and current watchlist (22 stocks) plus links to my daily live webcasts.
I only put 22 stocks on my watchlist today but TBH there are dozens more than look pretty good, the leaders are holding up very well and we’re seeing very few pullbacks below the 10d which makes me wonder if a bigger shakeout is on the horizon, or do the winners keep winning, or we see start to see some rotations into the laggards especially the stocks that gapped up on Q4 earnings then pulled back and now starting to catch a bid. These are the ones I’m watching closest right now because I don’t want to miss a potential rally into Q1 earnings.