Trading charts for Monday, February 13th

Good morning and Happy Monday,

First off, congrats to the Chiefs fan, it was a very entertaining game. Sadly I don’t think my Patriots will be in the Super Bowl anytime soon.

Here is my market/trading recap video from Friday at 4:00pm EST: https://us06web.zoom.us/rec/share/_zEtJ23xu2vOTgjh547JnoshGQpLUDiKeL0PcqNRShT3NjX1fgQQ1ZLT4Q04rqeU.6uQHN6qYq0P136DF

With regards to stocks and trading, tomorrow morning at 8:30am EST we get the January CPI report and with the recent edits to the weightings in the CPI basket I’m a little worried we’re going to get a hotter number.

Truflation @truflation

Next week's US CPI release forecasts vary greatly, more so because it is hard to gauge the effects of some of the BLS methodology changes. Dec CPI was 6.5% Here are some of the forecasts for Jan: Kalshi 6.6% Cleveland Fed 6.48% Market Consensus 6.2% Truflation Forecast 5.8%

Either way there’s no reason to take extra trading exposure/risk into that binary event which means I’ll be closing out most of the positions in my trading portfolio today, perhaps max exposure at 25%. For the record I’m 90-95% invested in my investment portfolio so I still have plenty of equity exposure but my strategy/mindset in that portfolio is very different.

Besides CPI tomorrow morning we get lots of earnings reports this week, including many commonly held/traded growth stocks like SHOP ABNB TWLO SWAV SEDG PLTR CROX DDOG TTD RBLX STEM and dozens more. We’re going to see lots of big pops and drops. It’s those drops that always scare me which means holding trading positions into earnings is a risky decision, I rarely do it.

I’ll be on Zoom today at 10:30am EST and 4:00pm EST:

10:30am EST = https://us06web.zoom.us/j/81854056970

4:00pm EST = https://us06web.zoom.us/j/87967535390

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Current portfolio [click here]: