Trading the Charts for Friday, October 6th
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Here are my deep dive newsletters…
30 year mortgage rate just hit 8% for the first time in 20+ years
New highs vs New lows…
Indexes and sector momentum…
Commentary:
We just got the BLS payroll report and it was much hotter than expected, 336k jobs vs estimates of 170k
Yields are spiking and stock futures are tanking
I was 100% cash in my trading portfolio going into yesterday and I added approx 27% exposure across 9 positions. After this hotter payroll number it’s possible I get stopped out of most positions today. Oh well, it happens.
There are lots of high quality growth stocks sitting around their 50d, 100d, 200d moving averages which are decent places to start positions with tight stop losses but the biggest worry is a big gap down from something like a jobs report or perhaps a company issuing a pre-earnings warning that they’ll miss previous guidance, that’s when stocks gap down 10-15% however I think Q3 earnings will be good because the economy is still strong and most people still have jobs.
Yields going higher is a continued headwind for growth stocks so it’s not time to get aggressive yet, I’m willing to keep exposure at 20-30% but I don’t see any reasons to go beyond that. I was really hoping we’d get a cooler number today which would bring down yields, take the FOMC out of the equation and create a nice tailwind into Q3 earnings. CPI next week is very important, estimates are 0.3% MoM which keeps us on track to get YoY under 3.5% by year end but we’re not going to see 2% YoY anytime soon, the earliest we could get down to 2% YoY is next summer.
Here are some additional thoughts that I put on Twitter this morning…
https://x.com/JonahLupton/status/1710272969027559430?s=20
https://x.com/JonahLupton/status/1710277590097801677?s=20
Equity futures have tanked since the jobs report…
Index mostly in the red yesterday…
Yields spiking on the hotter jobs report…
Most of the sectors in the red yesterday…
$TNX — breaking out to new highs, hitting 4.85% this morning
$VIX — VIX also pulling back the last couple days, now under 18.50
$CL1! — oil continues to plummet which should be good for CPI readings over the next few months
$SPX — not far away from that February high as well as the 200d sma
SPY
RSP
QQQ
QQQE
IWM
IWO
ARKK
Finviz screen #1: ACGL ACMR ANET ARES BAH BRBR CB CEIX CLS COR DHT EXEL FRO INSW IONS LPG LYV MANH MCK META MOD PAYO PCAR PCOR PDD PRDO PWSC REGN RELY SKWD SMCI SNPS TH TNGX TSLA VRT VRTX WING WRB WRBY
Criteria: price above $5, market cap above $1B, above 20d sma, above 50d sma, above 200d sma, average volume above 400k, QoQ earnings growth above 10%, QoQ sales growth above 10%
Finviz screen #2: ACGL ACMR ALHC ALL AMGN ANET ANF ARES ATVI AVID AVPT AXS BAH BBVA BGC BRBR BSY CAH CB CCCS CEIX CLS CME CNK COR COST CTRE CWAN DHT DUOL ESMT EURN EXEL FRO GOOG HQY HUM IMAX INSW IONS IRWD IT J LPG LRN LW LYV MANH MCK META MMYT MOD MRTX NBIX OWL PAYO PCAR PCOR PGR PINS PLTR PRDO PWSC PYCR REGN RELX RELY SBRA SFM SHO SKWD SMCI SNPS SPNT SPOT SRPT TH TNGX TSLA UEC UNH VRSN VRT VRTX WELL WING WRB WRBY WTW ZETA
Criteria: price above $5, market cap above $1B, above 20d sma, above 50d sma, average volume above 400k, QoQ sales growth above 5%
Finviz screen #3: ABCM ACGL ACMR AEO AIZ AMGN ANET ANF ARES ARLP ATGE ATSG AVPT AVT AXS BAH BGC BRBR BSY CAH CB CCCS CEIX CLS CME CNC COR COST CWAN CXW DHT DUOL ESMT EURN EXEL FN FRO GOOG HLN HQY IMAX INFY INSW IONS IT J LPG LRN LYV MANH MCK META MMYT MOD MOH MRTX NBIX OHI OWL PAYO PCAR PCOR PGR PINS PLTR PRDO PWSC REGN RELX RELY RNR ROAD SBRA SFM SKWD SMCI SNPS SPLK SPNT SPOT STVN SYNH TH TNET TNGX TSLA UEC UNH VERX VRT VRTX WELL WING WRB WRBY WU
Criteria: price above $4, market cap above $1B, above 20d sma, above 50d sma, price above 200d sma, average volume above 300k, QoQ sales growth above 0%
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