No newsletter today, March jobs report at 8:30am EST

After the selloff yesterday afternoon plus the March jobs report this morning there’s no point in putting together a newsletter.

If the markets react positively to the jobs report then I’ll use my watchlists for the past few days which are all posted on my spreadsheet under the “watchlists” tab.

The estimates for jobs report today is 200k so I’d like to see something lower than that, perhaps in the 150k range which might keep 3 rate cuts on the table for CY2024.

If the number comes in too hot we’ll see the 10Y move higher and stocks move lower on fears that the FOMC won’t be cutting rates this year… which means the market is willing to overlook a strong economy and healthy labor market because they’re overly-focused/obsessed on rate cuts which is semi-rationale to the extent that higher rates/yields does pose a bigger risk to the economy by causing an unnecessary slowdown. FOMC wants to avoid a recession but they want to bring down inflation even more and they seem willing to hurt the economy and labor markets if it means getting inflation closer to their 2% target rate.

Cheers,

Jonah