Trading the Charts for Thursday, June 22nd
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Good morning and Happy Thursday,
We got Powell’s testimony yesterday, of course he sounded hawkish which the markets didn’t love but that should not have been a surprise. Nasdaq was the worst performer yesterday, Russell was the best performer — but all major indexes finished in the red.
Equity futures back in the red this morning…
Yields up slightly this morning, I still think we’re near the peak in longer term yields…
Probability of a rate hike at July FOMC meeting was 80% yesterday morning, now it’s under 75% — curious to see if we keep drifting lower over the next few weeks until we get the next CPI report which will be under 3.5% YoY and could be as low as 3.0% YoY…
SPY pulling back and finding support at the 10d ema with a small bounce, if we don’t hold there the next area of support would be 431.49
RSP unable to hold the 10d ema and did dip below the 146.27 support line for a little while but ultimately closed above it. It’s notable that RSP outperformed SPY yesterday.
QQQ also found support yesterday at the 10d ema, if we don’t hold here the 21d ema is 2% lower.
QQQE losing the 10d ema yesterday, closed down -0.92% but that still outperformed QQQ, the 21d ema is less than 1% lower from here so very possible that’s where we end up in the next few days.
IWM also losing the 10d ema yesterday but bouncing off the VWAP from May 31st which was the day before IWM went on that big 5 day run, not sure how notable it is, guess we’ll find out in the next few days. FWIW, the 21d ema is approximately 1.2% below yesterday’s close with the 200d ema just 1.6% lower from here.
IWO barely finished in the red yesterday, while QQQ was down -1.36%, IWO was only down -0.08% which should be watched closely on whether small/mid caps continue to show relative strength. IWO closed right at the 8d ema.
ARKK coming off a horrible day, down 3.62% yesterday and losing all the ST moving averages, now less than 1% above the 200d ema with 21/23d ema just below that. I’m also hedging with ARKK but I’d probably increase those hedges even more if ARKK is unable to bounce off the 200d ema. FWIW, as I went through 400+ charts last night and this morning I noticed alot of growth stocks are now pulling back to their 21/23d ema ie PLTR, DOCN, CFLT and many others so not surprising that ARKK appears to be doing the same.
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