Trading the Charts for Thursday, June 15th
I also run a Stocktwits room where I’m active throughout the day but mainly post about my investment portfolio which is currently up ~75% YTD thanks to huge gains with CELH, LNTH, UBER, MELI, SDGR, ONON, TSLA, GLBE, SWAV, XPOF, NU, FLNC, CFLT, DOCN and several others. You can join by clicking the button below:
Here are my other newsletters…
Good morning and Happy Thursday,
In case you missed it, the FOMC finally paused yesterday (after 11 straight meetings with a hike) but they definitely sounded hawkish and based on their dot plots they’re projecting two more rate hikes before year end — which I think it unlikely because headline CPI will come in next month under 3.5% and the following month it could be under 3.0% so regardless of where core CPI is, the FOMC will look like an even bigger clown show if they’re hiking rates when headline CPI as a 2-handle ie 2.9% or lower. I still think it’s ridiculous that everyone was focused on headline CPI last year (including food & energy) but now they’re only focused on core CPI (excluding food & energy), once again proof that investors and economists will just cherry pick or manipulate whichever numbers fit their narrative.
Regarding the FOMC, the next meeting is July 25-26th but then no August meeting which means the September 19-20 meeting will have the August and September CPI, PPI and jobs reports to consider. Considering this schedule, it’s certainly possible the FOMC hikes next month (which is f*cking ridiculous after 500+ bps of hikes) knowing they won’t have an August meeting and won’t be able to hike in September when headline CPI under 3% because they continue to talk about a lag effect (6-12 months) but they’re certainly not acting like they understand what it means. If the FOMC had a f*cking clue they would realize it takes more than one pause to wait for the lag effects and to see the credit tightening impact from higher rates and the bank failures. Just baffles my mind how incompetent the FOMC has become, IMO they have zero credibility and yesterday is just another example.
Either, it’s certainly possible we see a pullback or more volatility in the coming weeks so you need to be prepared. If you have not trimmed any positions or added any hedges, now might be the time because this market is getting frothy and I don’t see any big catalysts on the horizon with Q2 earnings still 5+ weeks away with a hawkish FOMC and multiples looking rich. I’d love to see the Nasdaq go sideways for another few weeks while money continues to rotate into the rest of the market including small/mid caps. Multiples & valuations on the Russell 2000 are way more attractive than the S&P or Nasdaq however small/mid caps are more economically sensitive so a possible recession is a bigger headwind for them however the FOMC also raised their GDP projections and lowered their unemployment forecasts which means they see a stronger economy on the horizon which continues to make me think that no/soft landing is the base case — however the FOMC could force a hard landing if they continue to hike rates in an effort to slowdown the economy too quickly which will lead to a bigger decline in corporate earnings and more excessive job losses.
Sorry for the rant :)
SPX actually made a run at 4400 yesterday but ultimately failed at 4392, very possible we get a pullback to 4325
RSP finishing in the red yesterday (down -0.19%) but bouncing off the recent pivot of 146.27
QQQ were the outperformer yesterday (up 0.73%) after a pullback and bounce off 5d ema and the gap (from last April) it filled last week (at 360).
QQQE finished up 0.24% yesterday but got rejected right after filling the gap from last April, I’d love to see the QQQE outperform QQQ over the next month which would be healthy and just means some money is rotating into the other 95 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 not named AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, TSLA, NVDA
IWM with a big reversal yesterday (down -1.07%) after taking out previous day high because small/mid caps don’t like a hawkish FOMC and wants to keep hiking which raises probability of a recession, bouncing off the 8d ema, still looks fine but really needs to hold the 10d ema/sma otherwise we could get a retest of 200d ema which would likely coincide with the rising 21/23d ema
IWO looking identical to IWM yesterday (down -1.09%), took out previous day high then reversed and bounced off 8d ema, also needs to hold 10d ema/sma or we probably pullback further and retest 21/23d ema
ARKK is still is a nice uptrend despite the small reversal yesterday (down -0.50%), bouncing off the 6d ema and closing above that 43.75 support area. Very possible ARKK goes sideways for a few days or pulls back to the 9/10d ema/sma. Two of ARKK’s biggest positions, TSLA and ROKU, have been green almost every day for the past three weeks so it’s likely they need to take a breather which means ARKK will too.
Below the paywall is my current trading portfolio and watchlist with charts, entry points, stop losses, etc. (PS: my investment portfolio is different and only available to my Stocktwits subscribers and my Substack deep dive subscribers)
Please note that I have changed the links/URLs for my webcasts as well as my portfolio spreadsheet — I have to do this at the beginning of every month so former subscribers no longer have access to the content that is exclusive for paid subscribers.