Trading the Charts for Tuesday, June 13th
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I also run a Stocktwits room where I’m very active throughout the day and post about both of my portfolios with 100% transparency.
FWIW, I’m up 74.2% YTD thanks to huge gains with CELH, LNTH, UBER, MELI, SDGR, ONON, TSLA, GLBE, SWAV, XPOF, NU, FLNC, CFLT, DOCN and several others. You can join by clicking the button below:
Good morning and Happy Tuesday,
Since this newsletter was started to share my trading portfolio/strategy, I’ll try to post my stats every couple weeks… (includes open positions)
YTD trades: 481
YTD win rate: 35%
YTD average winner: +8.87%
YTD average loser: -2.06%
YTD performance: +54.3%
CPI at 8:30am EST, here are the current estimates (+4.1% YoY)…
According to JPM, here’s what the markets will do today based on the CPI reading…
Going into CPI, there’s a 79% chance of no rate hike tomorrow…
Futures looking decent, especially tech stocks…
Yields down slightly, 10Y still above 3.7% but we’ll see that come down if we start getting CPI prints under 4%
SPX closing above the highs from last summer is quite meaningful as we go into CPI, in order for this index to continue grinding higher we need the macro to cooperate with Q2 earnings coming in strong.
RSP (equal weighted SPX) back to those April highs, if we don’t push through I might short RSP as a hedge. RSP is up 3.45% YTD vs SPY/SPX at 13.43% so there’s alot of catching up to do. RSP has been strong the past couple weeks but still lagging because the market cap weighted index.
QQQ continues to be a beast, now up 35.38% YTD and starting to close that gap from last March. QQQ consolidated for a week or so then launched off the 5d ema yesterday to take out the recent highs. Next up is 372.13 but we’ll need a cooler CPI/PPI report followed by a dovish FOMC.
QQQ (equal weighted QQQ) also looking to close the gap from last March, also spent a week or so consolidating before breaking out to fresh 52 week highs.
IWM in a consolidation the past few days then bouncing off the 6d ema yesterday, now up 6.56% YTD, needs to get through 187.74 but could be a short if it fails at that level
IWO outperforming IWM by a wide margin this year, now up 11.68%, also doing a little consolidating but bouncing off 5d ema yesterday, needs to push through 241.39 then the bigger target will be 246.52 — I have a 15% short position in IWO as a hedge in my portfolio which I won’t reduce unless I swap into a different short or reduce my longs. Given that I’m up 74.2% YTD I need some hedges to protect my profits in case we get a pullback.
ARKK coming off an inside day but also bouncing off the 5d ema, next up is 43.86 — I’m still shorting ARKK as a hedge but I do trade it intraday meaning if ARKK pulls back in the morning I’ll cover my short and then put in a stop limit order just below the lows of the day to sell ARKK (ie get short again) if it makes a new low otherwise I’m unhedged intraday to let my longs rip higher but regardless of what happens from the time I cover my short to ~3:45pm, I’ll put that ARKK short back on by end of day to hedge me overnight against any potential gap downs.
If CPI comes in cooler this morning we could see TMF rip higher unless it decides to wait for PPI and FOMC tomorrow…
Below the paywall is my current trading portfolio and watchlist with charts, entry points, stop losses, etc. (PS: my investment portfolio is different and only available to my Stocktwits subscribers and my Substack deep dive subscribers)
Please note that I have changed the links/URLs for my webcasts as well as my portfolio spreadsheet — I have to do this at the beginning of every month so former subscribers no longer have access to the content that is exclusive for paid subscribers.