Trading the Charts for Friday, July 14th
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YTD stats for my trading portfolio:
656 closed trades
34% win rate (closed trades)
8.44% average winner (closed trades)
2.06% average loser (closed trades)
64.4% YTD performance (including open positions)
Good morning and Happy Friday,
Congrats for making it through another wild week, ultimately it’s been a very good week for the markets after we got a cooler CPI and PPI. Below are the PPI numbers from yesterday which were much better than expectations. We continue to get more proof points that inflation is coming down while the economy and labor markets remain strong.
Yesterday PPI helped spark a rally in stocks…
Markets coming off a strong day, especially growth stocks and large cap tech…
Futures are mixed this morning with several of the big banks reporting Q2 earnings before the market open… (JPM and WFC already out and looked good)
Yields up slightly this morning but down big the past couple days, the 10Y dropped 30 bps from the highs last week to the lows yesterday…
Oil is still grinding higher, touching $77 yesterday which means it’s up 15% in the past couple weeks which is why energy stocks have started to catch a bid…
Even with cooler CPI and PPI this week it looks like we’re still getting another 25 bps from the FOMC in 12 days but the odds of a September hike continue to move lower, now at 13.3%
SPY coming off a strong day, now running into the highs from last March/April.
RSP coming off a good day, getting closer to the highs from February/March of this year which just goes to show how much RSP has lagged SPY this year… by approximately 900 bps.
QQQ shot through the highs from last March/April, now heading towards the highs from last January, now less than 8% from the all time high in November 2021.
QQQE right up against those highs from last March/April, this might be a good place to hedge with QQQE if it can’t push through.
IWM still below the lows from earlier this year, trailing SPY by ~650 bps and IWO by ~550 bps, nice retest and bounce yesterday off that 191.92 level, if IWM can’t hold 191.91 then I’d probably short it but otherwise it looks good.
IWO looking even better than IWM, already pushed through the highs from earlier this year and now starting to push through the highs from last August. I’ll probably short IWO as a hedge if it fails to hold 249.14 but then I’d have to watch for a bounce off 246.45, if that happens I’d cover my hedge, if it fails to hold here I’d increase my short.
ARKK looking insanely bullish, I’m now up over 100% YTD in my investment portfolio but my ARKK hedge has probably cost me 8% in the past 2 weeks, I’ve taken small losses overnight which is fine but where I’ve hurt myself if increasing my hedges mid-day to lock in morning gains and then my stocks stay flat or fade while ARKK just keeps grinding higher into the close.
Below the paywall is my current trading portfolio and watchlist with charts, entry points, stop losses, etc.
PS: my investment portfolio is different and only available to my Stocktwits subscribers and my Substack deep dive subscribers