Trading the Charts for Thursday, December 7th
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Commentary…
Last few days have been very frustrating because I see decent price action from my watchlist at the open with some bounces and breakouts so I get sucked in then we peak around 11am and the selling starts which results in lots of reversals and failed breakouts. I’ve been up 1-3% each of the past few days but finished with small profits or losses each of those days. Other than taking profits mid day which isn’t really my style, the only other things I could do is be less aggressive with new positions (also not my style because I’m going to take the trades if they’re there) but I could also add some hedges/shorts to my trading portfolio when I’m up 2-3% on the day to make sure I protect those gains if we see reversals across the indexes (I do this in my investment portfolio)
Right now the markets still look fine to me, just some healthy corrections and consolidations but looks like megacap tech is still struggling, many of them pulling back to their 50d ema/sma where I’m definitely interested in starting positions in both of my portfolios. Small/mid caps continue to outperform but I need to be careful because many of them have less liquidity especially when there might be 100+ people watching my trading portfolio throughout the day and trying to copy some/all of my trades.
SPY needs to hold the 10d ema today, but RSP (equal cap weighted) has only pulled back to the 5d ema which proves how much stronger the small/mid caps have been vs the market cap weighted indexes like SPY and QQQ.
QQQ has pulled back to 20d sma but QQQE has only pulled back to 10d ema, both are sitting on those respective moving averages right now so it’s important they hold if we want to see some green the next couple days.
Remember, we get the BLS jobs report tomorrow morning at 8:30am so investors/traders might be extra cautious today. I’d be surprised if that report comes in hot but anything is possible. If it comes in cooler we should see the 10Y drop down to that support area of 4.06-4.09%
Next week we get CPI and PPI plus FOMC meeting which is already on the minds of anyone thinking about putting cash to work the next few days.
It’s hard for me to not be aggressive when I see the setups that I want but risk management is still critical. It’s alright to be aggressive if you have a plan in place and know where to minimize losses.
As always… my watchlists, daily charts and current trading portfolio are below the paywall down below… [subscribe here] to become a paid subscriber and get full access.
Earnings for the week…
Equity futures…
Indexes from yesterday…
Sectors from yesterday…
Rates…
New highs vs new lows…
Market performance…
$TNX (10Y Treasury) — lets see if the 10Y bounces off the 200d ema
$VIX
$CL1! (Oil) — shocking to see it under $70
$SPX (S&P 500) — needs to hold 10d ema
SPY (S&P 500, market cap weighted)
RSP (S&P 500, equal cap weighted) — only pulling back to 5d ema
QQQ (Nasdaq 100, market cap weighted) — needs to hold 20d sma
QQQE (Nasdaq 100, equal cap weighted) — needs to hold 10d ema
IWM (Russell 2000, small/mid caps) — not even back to 5d ema yet
IWO (Russell 2000 Growth, small/mid caps)
ARKK (Ark Innovation ETF) — not even back to 5d ema
FFTY (IBD Innovators 50 ETF) — rejected again at 200d ema
Deepvue screen #1: ABNB AEM AER AFRM AMD AMKR ANET APG APH APLE APO ARCC ARCH ARE ARMK ASND AVAV AVGO AXP BAC BC BK BL BN BRBR BRO BRZE BSAC BSBR C CADE CAT CCJ CCL CDNS CFG CLS CM CMA CNM COF COHR COLB COUR CRM CRWD CSX CUK CXM CYBR DAL DASH DDOG DKNG DT DTE DUOL DV DXCM EC ELF ENLC ENTG EPRT EQH ESMT ESTC ETR EURN EWBC EXPE FAST FIVN FLT FNB FND FOUR FROG FRPT FRSH FSK FTAI GEN GLBE GNRC GT GTLB H HALO HBAN HCC HLT HOMB HSBC HST IMGN INSM IOT ITCI ITUB IXHL JPM JXN KBH KIM KMI KNX KRG LEN LNG LULU LYFT MA MAR MCHP MDB MMYT MNDY MPLX MQ MTB NBIX NCLH NCNO NET NFE NOW NRG NSA NTNX NTRA NTRS NU NVT NXPI OBDC OKE ONB ORCL OTEX OWL OZK PAGS PANW PATH PBA PCAR PDD PFG PGNY PHM PK PLD PLNT PNC PNFP POST PSX PWR RBLX RCL RIOT RITM RIVN RMBS RPD RSG RYAAY S SBS SGEN SHOP SKX SMAR SNOW SNV SNX SO SOFI SPGI SPLK SPR SRC STAG STLD STM STNE STWD SUI SYM TEAM TIMB TS TSLA TSM TTWO TWLO TXRH UBER UCBI UGP ULTA URI USB USFD VLY VMC VRNS VRRM VVV WAL WBS WCC WCN WDAY WELL WRB XP XPEV YELP YMM YPF ZS ZWS
Criteria: price above $5, market cap above $1 billion, above 50d sma, above 200d sma, average volume above 400k, YoY sales growth above 20%
Below the paywall is my:
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YTD performance